Showing posts with label Euro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Euro. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Euro Near 2-Year Low Before Region’s Production Data


The euro traded 0.2 percent from a two-year low before data forecast to show inflation slowed in Germany and manufacturing stagnated in the euro area.
The 17-nation euro declined to a one-month low against the yen after as Germany’s top court said a decision on whether to suspend

Euro finance ministers agree to bailout Spanish banks


Euro finance ministers agree to bailout Spanish banks

Euro area finance ministers agreed early Tuesday on the terms of a bailout for Spain’s troubled banks, saying that the first €30 billion ($36.88 billion) in aid can be ready by the end of this month.
The finance ministers for the 17 countries that use the euro as their official currency will return to Brussels on 20 July to finalize the agreement, having first obtained the approval of their governments or parliaments, eurozone chief Jean-Claude Juncker said.
Last month, the eurozone’s finance ministers agreed to offer Spain up to €100 billion to prop up its stricken banking sector, which has been weakened by toxic loans and assets from a collapsed property market.
As part of the agreement with Spain, finance ministers from all 27 European Union countries are expected Tuesday to give the country extra breathing space to get a grip on its economy. The meeting is expected to approve a one-year extension, until 2014, of Spain’s deadline for achieving a budget deficit of 3 percent.
Each bank that receives a bailout will be forced to adopt specific conditions, and the supervision of the financial sector overall will be strengthened, Juncker said.
“We are convinced that this conditionality will succeed in addressing the remaining weakness in the Spanish banking sector,” he said.
Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said the agreement should be finalized soon.
“We have a tentative deal on the bailout conditions for a bailout of Spanish banks,” De Jager said. “The total will likely be €100 billion. Some countries like the Netherlands, Germany and Finland need to get parliamentary approval. We hope this can be wrapped up within a week.”
The exact amount of the bailout will likely not be known until September, when individual examinations of different Spanish banks have been completed.
Spain —the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone—has been struggling to keep a lid on its government deficit in the midst of a recession while trying to support its troubled banking industry weighed down by toxic loans and assets from a collapsed property market. There are fears that should Spain need a bailout of its own, the eurozone would struggle to finance it, pushing the region further into recession.
De Jager said Madrid’s partners agree that “financial sector reforms in Spain must be ruthlessly implemented. These reforms include, notably, a cap on salaries of bank executives and a ban on bonuses.”
However, he said a system of EU-wide banking supervision still needs to be worked out.
“There are still differences over this,” he said. “The details will be worked out by the end of the year.”
But on Monday, before the eurogroup meeting began, Mario Draghi, the chief of the European Central Bank, said he was confident that a banking union in the European Union would be achieved.
“The first thing to be created will be the supervision,” Draghi told a committee of the European Parliament. “We are talking about the long-term sustainability of the European monetary union. We are going as fast as we can. It is better to do things right than in a hurried fashion. We certainly want to see this thing wrapped up by the end of the year,” he said, referring to banking oversight.
“By the end of this year we will have something that is not perfect, but achievable.”
Officials also announced that Klaus Regling, a German economist who currently heads the temporary EU bailout fund, had been chosen to head the European Stability Mechanism— the permanent bailout fund meant to head off instability in the eurozone.
Regling, 61, will take charge of a bailout fund meant to reassure markets that the European Union will stand behind its weaker members.
Ministers said the final decision on Greece‘s request to renegotiate the terms of the country’s bailout agreements will depend on the conclusions of the so-called “troika” of debt inspectors currently overseeing the Greek program.
“Final decisions can only be made when the facts and figures from the troika are on the table, but in general it is clear that they will stick to the program that Greece is now undergoing,” Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said.
Greece has had to impose harsh austerity measures, including big cuts to pensions and salaries, to secure billions of euros worth of rescue loans from the IMF and other European countries that use the euro and avoid bankruptcy. (curtsey : first post)
Rupesh Yatesh Dalal
Head Research Department


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Monday, July 9, 2012

Most-Accurate Forecasters On Euro Clash With Options Sign


The world’s most-accurate foreign- exchange strategists say the worst is over for the euro this year, putting them at odds with traders who see more pain as the region’s economy shrinks and the sovereign debt crisis deepens.
Most-Accurate Forecasters See Euro Bottom at Odds With Options
Led by Wells Fargo & Co. and Westpac Banking Corp. -- which correctly called the

Euro Touches 2-Year Low Before Finance Ministers Meet


The euro touched its lowest level in two years before regional finance ministers gather in Brussels today to discuss crisis-fighting measures adopted by heads of government at a summit last month.
Euro Touches 2-Year Low
The 17-nation currency weakened before European Central Bank President 

Friday, July 6, 2012

ECB rate cut not enough to keep markets satisfied: Lloyds


Trevor Williams, chief economist, Lloyds, says that after Draghi's comment bond yields are up almost 30 bps. Although the rate cut of 25 bps, which brings the ECB rates to a record low of 0.75%, is not satisfied to keep the markets satisfied. The markets are more worried after Draghi comment.
Trevor Williams, Economist , Lloyds Bank
Q: The market was expecting non-standard measures but the ECB has refrained from announcing anything. Will this have any significant impact?
A: It has already impacted the markets. After Draghi's comment the bond

Asian shares pressured by growth worries despite stimulus, focus on U.S. jobs


(Reuters) - Asian shares paused on Friday, pressured by falls overnight in global shares as sentiment remained cautious despite new stimulus steps taken by three major central banks, with focus now pinned to the U.S. jobs data due later in the day.
A man looks at a stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo June 29, 2012. REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao/Files
The U.S. jobs report will offer clues about the extent of damage the euro zone's debt crisis

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Asian shares pause from rally, euro eases before ECB decision


(Reuters) - Asian shares eased on Thursday as markets awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day, while the euro was pressured by widespread expectations of a rate cut to support fragile euro zone growth.
Tokyo Stock Exchange employees monitor the market at the bourse in Tokyo June 18, 2012. REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao/Files
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched down 0.2 percent after hitting a seven-week high on Wednesday.
Japan's Nikkei average

Wednesday, July 4, 2012


(Reuters) - It's 2025 and Angela Merkel, Europe's first democratically elected president, is reviewing a crowded agenda for the new session of the increasingly powerful European Parliament.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government policy statement in the German lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, in Berlin, June 29, 2012. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
The head of the European Monetary Fund is recommending a big increase in the by

Asian shares rise on hopes of more monetary stimulus


(Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Wednesday as investors kept hopes high for more monetary policy stimulus to support the faltering global economy, but trading may be subdued with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday.
A Tokyo Stock Exchange employee looks up at a monitor displaying market indices at the bourse in Tokyo June 18, 2012. REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao/Files
U.S. equities rallied while European shares closed at a two-month high on Tuesday on expectations

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

RBI rate cut may be further delayed: Citi


A perplexing thing about the euro crisis is its perceived impact on the Indian economy. In virtually all explanations given for the country’s low economic performance, there is a reference to the euro crisis and the overall global economic situation. But, at other times when we are questioned on the future prospects of the country, we tend to say that we are basically a domestic economy and that there is only a peripheral impact of such developments. It seems like the euro crisis is a convenience explanation depending on what you want to convey.
Logically, the afflictions of the eurozone should strike us in four ways. The first is through the trade

Monday, July 2, 2012

Euro Leaders Turn To Central Bankers For Help To Tackle Crisis


Europe’s political leaders turn to the European Central Bank this week, seeking assistance from monetary policy makers to reinforce gains following euro-area leaders’ moves to calm markets and accelerate the currency bloc’s integration.
The Frankfurt-based ECB may offer help on July 5, with economists expecting an interest rate cut. The bank has a track record of action following political progress, including bond purchases that followed bailout programs and unlimited three- year loans on the heels of pledges supporting fiscal discipline.
European Union leaders ushered in the strongest rally in the single currency and in Spanishbonds this year after agreeing at their June 28-29 summit to loosen bailout rules, lay the foundations for a banking union and break the link between sovereign and banking debt through the direct recapitalization of lenders. EU leaders will try to maintain the muscle-flexing by seeking to convince investors that the euro area will do everything it can to end the three-year crisis.
“The summit produced several tangible outcomes that will help us address the challenges,” ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen told Greek newspaper Kathimerini in an interview. The comments were confirmed by the ECB on June 30.
Economists expect the ECB to lower its benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points to a record low of 0.75 percent, according to the median of 57 estimates in a Bloomberg survey, as a worsening economic outlook dampens price pressures.

Yields Slide

Spanish and Italian notes rose for a second week running, with Italian two-year yields sliding 30 basis points to 3.5 percent last week and similar Spanish securities declining 16 points to 4.27 percent. The euro jumped 1.8 percent to $1.2667. The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 3 percent on June 29, the most since November, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 2.5 percent to cap its best June since 1999.
Euro-area leaders agreed after 13 1/2 hours of talks in Brussels to drop the preferred status of taxpayers over bondholders in Spanish banks given government aid, clear the path for direct bank funding using bailout funds and to establish a single bank supervisor.
The decisions will add to the ECB’s powers, under clauses in existing EU treaties that could allow it to exercise prudential oversight of banks and other non-insurance financial companies. The central bank will now be at the center of Spain’s efforts to separate its government from the European rescue of its banking industry.

‘Long-Term Commitment’

“I am actually quite pleased with the outcome of the European council,” ECB President Mario Draghi told reporters in Brussels June 29. “It showed the long-term commitment to the euro by all member states of the euro area.”
Draghi will chair the ECB’s policy meeting this week when any rate move will be announced. In addition to the benchmark rate, policy makers may also cut the deposit rate to discourage banks from parking excess liquidity at the central bank.
The ECB may also continue to exercise restraint on borrowing costs as it aims to maintain pressure on governments to act, said Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG inFrankfurt.
A rate cut would work as a fillip to the euro-area’s 17- nation economy, which the European Commission expects to contract by 0.3 percent this year. Lower interest rates would also help embattled lenders in debt-burdened parts of the bloc by making the central bank’s emergency loans cheaper.

Bank Supervisor

Euro-area leaders may hesitate to declare victory prematurely, with favorable post-summit response from markets in the past proving short-lived. A report last week by Valentin Marinov, head of European and Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. in London, showed that the euro weakened against the dollar in the seven days following four previous such meetings.
The process for establishing a euro-area bank supervisor and thus allowing the permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, to recapitalize banks directly could take “several months or perhaps a year,” Chancellor Angela Merkel told Germany’s lower house of parliament in Berlin on June 29.
Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said swift adoption of the summit’s decisions would help reduce his country’s borrowing costs.
“Decisions were taken that will have a fundamental role in the short term to lower spreads,” de Guindos said during a conference in Navacerrada, near Madrid, yesterday. “It is fundamental that these decisions be concretely implemented in the next weeks and months to show the fiscal policy is more and more coordinated and more compatible with the monetary policy.”

Merkel to Rome

The shuttling among euro leaders will continue this week as Merkel travels to Rome on July 4 for a summit with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. They’ll plot the bloc’s next steps in a crisis that claimed the eastern Mediterranean island nation of Cyprus as its fifth victim last week.
EU Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier called on all the bloc’s nations to draft financial regulations

Friday, June 29, 2012

Stocks Soar on EU Plans But ‘Relief Rally Will Be Short-Lived’ Says Schoenberger


Stocks are flying early Friday on the news that euro zone officials have agreed to lend bailout funds directly to struggling banks rather than through each nation's central bank. The move has the effect of taking the governments of Italy and Spain off the hook for their beleaguered financial institutions by reducing their debt obligations. The plan also solidifies the unity of the Euro Zone at a moment

Demands For Bond-Buying Agreement Roil European Summit


European Union leaders struggled to meet demands by Spain and Italy for relief from rising borrowing costs, threatening to derail a 120 billion-euro ($149 billion) pledge to boost economic growth.
Demands for Bond-Buying Agreement Roil European Crisis Summit
Leaders from the 17 euro nations stayed on to debate the crisis-fighting plan

Asian shares down on EU deadlock, awaiting U.S. reaction


(Reuters) - Asian shares and the euro were pressured on Friday as European leaders argued over how to ease borrowing strains in Italy and Spain and stop the euro zone debt crisis spreading, with investors fearful of U.S. reaction to the deadlock.
Tokyo Stock Exchange employees monitor the market at the bourse in Tokyo June 18, 2012. REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao
"Investors are waiting for further developments overnight in Europe and the reaction in Wall Street before

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Global shares edge up, euro vulnerable on divided EU summit


(Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Thursday on encouraging U.S. economic data, but prices could falter with markets tense ahead of a European summit deeply divided on how to tackle the protracted euro zone debt crisis and stop it spreading further.
Traders work at their desks at the Frankfurt stock exchange June 27, 2012. REUTERS/Alex Domanski
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged 0.2 percent

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Global shares flat, euro pressured on EU summit cynicism


(Reuters) - Asian shares were flat and the euro pressured on Wednesday as investors seemed convinced a European summit this week will fail to take concrete action to solve the euro debt crisis, with Germany staunchly opposed to sharing the region's debt burden.
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange June 14, 2012. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat while Japan's Nikkei average opened up 0.2 percent.
"Investors are waiting for the conclusion of the EU summit, even though they aren't expecting anything concrete to come out of it," said Yoshihiro Ito, chief strategist at Okasan Online Securities, adding that there were few factors other than exchanges rates to influence trading this session.
In Seoul, the market level near 1,800 points showed stocks were trading very cheaply and were ripe for bargain-hunting, said Cho Sung-joon, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy on Tuesday released a report on closer fiscal and banking union, envisaging a euro zone treasury that would issue common debt in the medium term. But Germany, two days before the June 28-29 summit, flatly rejected the idea of common euro zone bonds.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe would not share total debt liability "as long as I live".
Her comments further convince investors that the Brussels summit is likely to produce little. The summit will be the 20th time EU leaders have met to try to resolve a crisis that has spread across Europe since it began in Greece in early 2010.
SUMMIT OFFERS NO "MAGIC" SOLUTION
Nervous investors pushed Spanish short-term borrowing rates to their highest in more than six months on Tuesday and yields on Italy's new two-year paper to a new high since December. Italy will sell six-month bills on Wednesday and face a more challenging offer of five- and 10-year debt on Thursday.
The euro eased 0.1 percent at $1.2486, hovering near its lowest against the dollar in more than two weeks of $1.2441 hit on Tuesday, while the dollar index measured against a basket of key currencies inched up 0.1 percent to 82.423.
"Global risk sentiment is trading sideways with a negative tone ahead of Thursday's European summit," said Barclays Capital analysts in a research note.
"This seems consistent with our 'muddle through' scenario in which no magic solution is likely to come from the upcoming summit, forcing troubled governments to push through reforms and austerity, as Germany continues to resist the fiscal transfers needed to place euro area in a solid recovery path."
In Greece, a veteran economist dubbed "Mr Euro" for his participation in the team that negotiated Athens' entry into the euro in 2001, Yannis Stournaras, was appointed as its new finance minister on Tuesday.
The move comes at a crucial time for the country which is only weeks away from running out of cash and in desperate need of a capable minister to renegotiate the harsh terms of a financial bailout with global lenders.
European worries continued to take a toll on the global economy as reflected in mixed data from the United States.
The S&P/Case Shiller U.S. home prices index picked up in April for the third month in a row to suggest a recovery in the housing market, but data showed consumer confidence fell to its lowest in five months in June, revealing a fragile U.S. economy.
U.S. crude futures were down 0.1 percent at $79.31 a barrel and Brent crude inched down 0.2 percent at $92.87 a barrel on Wednesday.
Asian credit markets firmed slightly, with the spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index narrowing by 2 basis points early on Wednesday. (curtsey : reuter)
Rupesh Yatesh Dalal
Head Research Department


Website : www.marketcalls.net
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Twitter : @marketcallsnet
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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Greece anchored to euro but hurdles are far from over


Greece‘s pro-bailout, pro-euro New Democracy Party emerged victorious on Sunday, indicating the Greeks will to stay anchored with the euro and remain an integral part of the euro zone.
Along with the socialist party Pasok, the New Democracy is likely to form a coalition soon.  This means that there is near term

Monday, June 11, 2012

EU's Spain bank rescue may bring only brief respite


Euro zone finance ministers rushed Spain into an EU-funded rescue for its debt-stricken banks to pre-empt the threat of a bank run if Greece's debt crisis flares again but any respite for Madrid and the euro may be short-lived.
After weeks of insisting that Spain needed no assistance to recapitalise lenders crippled by bad debts from a burst real estate bubble, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was pushed into requesting an aid package for fear of worse disaster to come, European officials involved in the negotiations said.
The 17-nation currency area agreed to lend Madrid up to 100 billion euros for its bank rescue fund, more than an initial audit suggests it is likely to need, in an attempt to reassure investors and erect a new firewall in the crisis.
But the euro zone's latest line in the sand, after bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal since 2010, could be swept away as early as next Sunday by angry Greek voters, rekindling market turmoil that would hit Spain and Italy first.
Rajoy said his reforms had spared Spain a full rescue for its public debt but some analysts say the bank aid may only be a prelude to an eventual bailout of the state.
EU's Spain bank rescue may bring only brief respite
After less than six months in office, the conservative premier is desperate

Spain gets 100bn euro lifeline; will Nifty party today?


Euro zone finance ministers on Sunday agreed to lend Spain up to 100 billion euro to help its battered banks. Meanwhile Spanish prime minister said that this bailout package is simply a line of credit, which means that it can avoid a full rescue.
The US markets ended higher in thin trading on optimism that